According to the different forms, sulfur are subdivided into solid sulfur and liquid sulfur. The solid sulfur is easy to store and transport. Liquid sulfur needs to be insulated for transportation, is not suitable for long-distance transportation, nor is it suitable for storage, but its production should be timely, without heating, saving the production cost of downstream enterprises. The change of the price difference between the two can objectively reflect the subjective change of market operators' hoarding mentality.
The market price trend of domestic solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in 2022-2024 is more similar. The main reasons are: first, the two are the same substance, only exist in different forms, and the two can be transformed into each other; Second, the downstream demand areas are more similar, and are mostly used for processing and production of sulfonic acid and phosphate fertilizer. As of February 22, 2024, the average annual price of solid sulfur from 2022 to 2024 was 2137.78 yuan/ton, 936.51 yuan/ton and 829.27 yuan/ton, respectively. The average annual price of liquid sulfur was 2051.51 yuan/ton, 903.10 yuan/ton and 889.76 yuan/ton, respectively.
However, the price difference between solid and liquid sulfur is not fixed; As shown in Figure 1, the gray shadow area representing the price difference between the two changes significantly. From January 2022 to August 2023, the price difference between solid and liquid sulfur was mostly positive; The main reasons: solid sulfur is liquid sulfur produced by granulation device, and the production cost increases; In addition, at that time, in order to ensure normal production demand, there were stockpiling measures, and solid sulfur was relatively high.
Since September 2023, the spread between solid and liquid sulfur has been mostly negative. The main reasons are as follows: First, with the domestic refining and chemical integration unit put into operation, the sulfur production increased, the port inventory was relatively high, the supply was relatively abundant, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream production enterprises to stockpile goods was lower than in the previous period; Second, the load rate of the main downstream phosphate fertilizer plant is relatively low, the raw material sulfur is more on-demand purchase, and the raw material storage inventory is low; Third, the market price fluctuation of sulfur is limited, and the buyer uses it with the purchase, and the risk awareness of avoiding changes in raw material costs has been reduced. Fourth, downstream production enterprises purchase on demand, stock enthusiasm is low, the demand for solid sulfur is reduced, and most favor liquid sulfur resources that can be directly produced and used, so the price difference between the two is reversed.
In 2022-2024, the annual average price difference between solid and liquid sulfur was 86.28 yuan/ton, 33.42 yuan/ton and -60.49 yuan/ton, respectively.
Future Market Outlook:
Domestic solid and liquid sulfur price differential or long-term negative. The specific reasons are as follows:
On the supply side, with the continuous operation of refining and chemical integration projects, domestic sulfur production may continue to increase; Import costs are relatively low, do not rule out traders and downstream production enterprises in order to dilute the early high import costs, continue to increase the purchase of imported resources may, supply is sufficient overall, sulfur market industry mentality or relatively pessimistic, inventory enthusiasm is relatively low.
In terms of demand, the end market performance is lukewarm, and the demand for sulfonic acid and phosphate fertilizer is limited; Moreover, in order to control their own product inventory, phosphate fertilizer manufacturers mostly maintain low-load production, and the consumption rate of raw material sulfur is relatively slow. Even if the market enters the traditional consumption season, the sulfur market price fluctuation is limited, it is still mainly on-demand procurement, and it is expected that the peak season will not be prosperous again in 2024.
In terms of inventory, the port sulfur inventory is relatively high, because the procurement efforts of downstream production enterprises are difficult to increase significantly, and inventory digestion is slow; In addition, if some traders are bearish about the future market and sell a large number of goods, the market price of sulfur may fall one after another under the surge in supply; At that time, market players will hold money and wait, and the enthusiasm for hoarding will decrease, and the difference in the market price of solid and liquid sulfur will be further expanded.
